EPL Predictions, Part Four

Today we’ll predict who will finish in 5th through 8th place in the Premier League.  While not as prestigious as a Champions League place or a top-four finish, the three Europa League spots should be keenly contested, and many teams have the potential to claim them.  Who do I think will do so?  Find out below.

5.  Manchester City

In: Roque Santa Cruz, Blackburn, £18m; Gareth Barry, Aston Villa, £12m; Carlos Tevez, unattached, £25m; Emmanuel Adebayor, Arsenal, £25m; Kolo Toure, Arsenal, £16m; Stuart Taylor, Aston Villa, free

Out: Daniel Sturridge, Chelsea, undisclosed; Ched Evans, Sheffield United, £3m; Elano, Galatasaray, undisclosed; Gelson Fernandes, Saint-Etienne, undisclosed; Joe Hart, Birmingham, loan; Jo, Everton, loan; Valeri Bojinov, Parma, loan; Dietmar Hamann, Michael Ball, Danny Mills, Darius Vassell, all released

Not many teams could spend close to 100 million pounds (and counting) while letting a Brazil international and two very highly-regarded young strikers leave the club for below market value, but City are not a normal club; rather, City are a massive club (come on, you didn’t think I was going to have fun with this?).  It is City’s goal to shed its second-banana image in Manchester and establish the club as a world-class team capable of attracting any player in the world, though the Citizens still have a ways to go.  This season, a fifth-place finish would be slightly disappointing, but it is difficult to see the team gelling enough to accomplish more, especially if no further defensive reinforcements are brought in.  Manager Mark Hughes is under huge pressure to deliver results to owner Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who graduated from American University (note the history of being overshadowed by better options in the same town), and failure to do so will surely result in his firing.  Hughes has many quality players at his disposal, but whether he can form them into a potent team remains to be seen.  Goalkeeper Shay Given developed into arguably the best goalkeeper in the Premier League with Newcastle and has continued to gain plaudits for his play at City.  The defense in front of him is not quite as accomplished; Nedum Onuoha and Micah Richards are both young Englishmen who can play on the right or in the center of defense, but Richards has regressed since being labeled as England’s next right back two seasons ago, and Onuoha’s progress has seemingly stagnated as well.  New signing Kolo Toure and club captain Richard Dunne are the first-choice center backs, but their partnership is still in its infancy and growing pains should be expected.  Wayne Bridge is a solid if unspectacular left back who is known more for going forward than his defensive prowess.  City are ridiculously stacked in midfield, but choosing the right players could be a problem for Hughes; in today’s game against Blackburn he deployed Gareth Barry as the team’s only holding midfielder, leaving City’s back line vulnerable.  Nigel De Jong and Vincent Kompany, who is currently injured but can play in defense or as a defensive midfielder, are better fits in this position.  Barry is more of a box-to-box midfielder, and a good one at that, but Bruce must also juggle club favorite Stephen Ireland, last season’s player of the year, and Shaun Wright-Phillips, the club’s best winger.  While Martin Petrov is also a winger, he is not in the same class as City’s other midfielders; this causes problems for Hughes in balancing his midfield as he only has one good winger.  He solved this problem in City’s first game by playing Brazilian maestro Robinho on the left wing, but this is certainly not his best position and he was limited to only one threatening shot.  While City’s midfield has many quality players, it is nowhere near as crowded as the logjam at forward.  In addition to Robinho, Adebayor and Tevez expect to start every game, while Paraguayan Roque Santa Cruz will soon be match fit.  While Craig Bellamy, the combustible Welsh forward, started today, he may not see regular action going forward and his behavior may deteriorate as a result–this could be a significant problem.  Benjani Mwaruwari, brought over from Portsmouth in January, is even less likely to see the field.  If Hughes can capably manage the huge egos and rotate the many players clamoring for action, City could make an outside run at a Champions League place; if he fails to do so, they could flame out and finish in mid-table.  The huge amount of talent at City’s disposal means that this is unlikely, though, and the team should come together enough to finish as the first club outside of the “Big Four,” though breaking into this club should be a step too far.

6. Aston Villa

In: Fabian Delph, Leeds United, £6m; Stuart Downing, Middlesbrough, £12m; Habib Beye, Newcastle, undisclosed

Out: Gareth Barry, Manchester City, £12m; Zat Knight, Bolton, undisclosed; Stuart Taylor, Manchester City, free; Martin Laursen, retired

This season could be a trying one for Villa, as replacing captain Barry and defensive stalwart Laursen, who retired because of a chronic knee problem, will be difficult.  Nevertheless, Villa have one of the most highly-regarded managers in the Premier League and a strong nucleus of young English talent.  Like City, it may take Villa a bit of time to find their identity following the two departures, but Martin O’Neill has the managerial acumen to right the ship quickly.  Villa is set at goalkeeper, where 38-year-old Brad Friedel holds the Premier League record for consecutive appearances.  In the unlikely event of an injury, compatriot Brad Guzan has looked good in limited action for club and country.  Carlos Cuellar is likely to take over Laursen’s spot in central defense alongside Curtis Davies, while Luke Young can play on both sides of defense and Wilfred Bouma, Nickey Shorey, and new signing Beye are all in the mix as well.  Villa have many good wingers, but are a bit thin in the center of the park after Barry’s departure.  Craig Gardner is more of a utility player than an out-and-out central midfielder, while Steve Sidwell and Nigel Reo-Coker have disappointed since their moves to the Midlands.  Young defensive midfielder Isaiah Osborne has yet to establish himself as a Premier League-quality player.  Villa’s group of wingers includes England internationals Ashley Young, James Milner and Stuart Downing, who is out until mid-year with a foot injury, as well as captain Stiliyan Petrov.  Villa also have options up top; Norwegian John Carew and Englishman Emile Heskey are both potent options in the air, while speedster Gabriel Agbonlahor provides a nice contrast, though he could stand to improve his finishing.  Look for 18-year-old Nathan Delfouneso to establish himself in the side; he is highly-rated and Martin O’Neill has said that he will get more first-team opportunities this season.  Villa’s improved depth and O’Neill’s past success means that they will be a very good team despite losing two key players, but they cannot afford a slow start because the competition for Europa League places is so fierce.

7.  Tottenham Hotspur

In: Sebastian Bassong, Newcastle, £8m; Peter Crouch, Portsmouth, £9m; Kyle Naughton, Kyle Walker, both Sheffield United, undisclosed (Walker will stay on loan at Sheffield for this season)

Out: Didier Zokora, Sevilla, £8.62m; Chris Gunter, N Forest, £1.75m; Ben Alnwick (Norwich, loan; David Button, Crewe Alexandra, loan; Jake Livermore, Derby, loan; David Hutton, Cheltenham, free; Ricardo Rocha, Gilberto (both released)

Tottenham were the laughingstock of the Premiership for the beginning of last season because they went about a month without a win (a typical joke: what’s the difference between a triangle and Tottenham? A triangle has three points), but under manager Harry Redknapp Spurs should be much improved and capture a Europa League place.  Goalkeeper is a bit of a problem position; Heurelho Gomes is the first choice, but he had trouble in his first season, most notably dealing with crosses.  He seemed to improve towards the end of the campaign, however, so perhaps he just needed time to adjust to the faster pace in England.  Backup Carlo Cudicini, late of Chelsea, is a more than capable backup, though his skills have eroded due to age and lack of playing time.  Tottenham’s defense is paper-thin at present, but this is more due to bad luck than a lack of quality defensemen.  Captain Ledley King is injured, as are Jonathan Woodgate and Michael Dawson.  King suffers from a debilitating knee condition that only allows him to play once a week; in addition he cannot train regularly with the team.  He is nevertheless a tremendous player and manages to cope with the rigors of the Premier League despite this lack of training.  Dawson, Woodgate, Corluka and new signing Bassong are all very good defenders in the center, while Kyle Naughton should take over at right back for Alan Hutton, who isn’t bad himself; this is certainly a position of strength for Tottenham.  The left side is not as strong; in an unfortunate coincidence Spurs have never won a game that Gareth Bale has played in, while regular starter Benoit Assou-Ekotto is decent but uninspiring.  He may be the weakest link in Spurs’ squad.  Tottenham’s midfield is versatile, deep, and, if certain players live up to their potential (we’re looking at you, David Bentley), could be seen as one of the best in the Premier League.  Tom Huddlestone occupies the holding role; while he has battled weight problems and is inconsistent, his strength and powerful shot make him a very promising player.  Kevin-Prince Boateng, Wilson Palacios, and Jermaine Jenas also play central midfield, though all are more offense-minded than Huddlestone.  Aaron Lennon is one of the Premier League’s most frustrating players; his searing pace and tremendous ball control make him one of the most feared wingers in the league (just ask Patrice Evra), but his crosses and shots leave much to be desired.  If he can improve these areas of his game he could crack the England squad; right winger is somewhat of a problem position, with David Beckham soon to retire and Theo Walcott inconsistent on the flank.  David Bentley was one of England’s rising stars just a year ago, but has fallen off dramatically and is in danger of being labeled a bust unless he improves his game this season.  Spurs’ ambitions would be greatly helped by a Bentley revival; Palacios and Bale can both play on the wing, as can Luka Modric, but it is not their natural position.  Modric is one of the Premier League’s most creative players; his best position is between the midfield and forwards but too often last season he was forced to work on the left flank or in another position that diminished his impact.  He plays best when given free reign, and it will be interesting to see if Redknapp gives him more room to maneuver this season.  To me, Tottenham’s most intriguing player is one who plays the same position, Mexican Giovani dos Santos.  He tore the USA apart in the Gold Cup but has been far less impressive in England; he is best known for his drunken escapades at Spurs’ Christmas party and for being loaned to Ipswich because he was not ready to play in the Premier League.  He is clearly talented, as he was in Barcelona’s academy as a youngster, but whether he can adapt to England remains to be seen.  Tottenham are set at forward; buying Peter Crouch gives them an England international strikeforce of Crouch and Jermain Defoe, meaning that poor Robbie Keane may be forced back onto the bench (or onto the left wing–we’ll have to see).  This doesn’t even take 6’2″ Roman Pavlyuchenko into account; putting him and the 6’7″ Crouch up top would give Spurs a tremendous aerial threat; of course, if their wingers do not perform well, this partnership would go to waste.  Despite their wingers, Spurs are a deep and talented team who should withstand injuries better than most teams that they are competing with.  Factor in Redknapp, who players love playing for, and a Europa League place seems likely.

8. Everton

In: Jo, Manchester City, loan

Out: Lars Jacobsen, Blackburn, free; Nuno Valente, Andy van der Meyde, both released

Despite Everton’s 6-1 tonking (I love that word) at the hands of Arsenal, I think that they will recover and have a decent season.  They were missing midfield playmaker Mikel Arteta and key defender Phil Jagielka, and hopefully they’ll figure out what’s going on up top, as lone striker Jo looked hopeless.  I trust David Moyes, though; he may do more with less than any other Premier League manager.  Tim Howard is rock solid in goal, but as today showed Everton have some problems in defense.  Joleon Lescott is the subject of rumors linking him to Manchester City, and if one listened to pundits it severely effected his performance today.  I see it as correlation rather than causation, but it probably did affect him and he’ll have to do better.  If he gets sold, Everton will have to hope that they can find a replacement; Lescott has been a tremendous presence since signing from Wolverhampton.  Jagielka is a very good partner and Everton will hope that they can withstand his absence; he is not slated to return until December.  Before today I would have said that Tony Hibbert, Joseph Yobo and Leighton Baines are solid defenders, but they all got exposed on set-pieces and Baines in particular had problems dealing with height.  Moyes needs to sort these issues out quickly; if not, Everton may face a lot of teams doing everything they can (read: diving) in an effort to get as many free kicks as possible.  Everton played with five men in midfield today, but it was very stagnant; the lack of a creative force like Arteta was painfully obvious.  Tim Cahill works as hard as any player in the EPL but he is more of a finisher than a creator, while Phil Neville has always been more defensive.  Steven Peinaar was very disappointing; so often the creative center of South Africa, his influence was severely limited by Arsenal.  If he can improve Everton will look much more dangerous going forward.  Marouane Fellaini and his ridiculous Afro are recovering from illness; he apparently lost a significant amount of weight and is less dangerous in his current form.  Once he regains his optimal playing weight he should become much more dangerous from set-pieces.  Jack Rodwell is the X-factor; only 18, he may be Everton’s best passer in Arteta’s absence.  Forward is Everton’s most infuriating position; Jo was useless today, while Louis Saha, who scored the Toffees’ consolation goal, is always injured.  Everton will hope that Yakubu and youngster Victor Anichebe will soon be fit, giving them more options up front.  All in all, Everton are hoping that players can recover quickly from various injuries and praying that their makeshift squad is sufficient to keep them in the hunt for Europa League places.  In the end, however, the injuries and lack of signings may make such a goal out of their reach.

Tomorrow comes the part that everyone’s been waiting for, the top four teams.  Also, Manchester United takes on Birmingham and Liverpool faces Tottenham.  Can they respond to Arsenal’s tremendous statement or will they put in an unconvincing performance like Chelsea?  We’ll find out soon enough!