EPL Predictions, Part Three

On to the safety of mid-table in today’s predictions, with Europa League places to come tomorrow and the top four on Sunday.

9.  Fulham

In: Bjorn Helge Riise, Lillestrom, undisclosed; Stephen Kelly, Birmingham, free; Kagisho Dikgacoi, Golden Arrows

Out: None

Fulham were one of the biggest surprises in the Premier League last year, finishing in seventh place largely thanks to manager Roy Hodgson.  Brought in in the middle of the 2007-08 season to prevent the Cottagers from being relegated, he made it into seventh place last year, earning Fulham a place in the Europa Cup.  While Hodgson can certainly take a lot of credit for Fulham’s position, the team also has some very good players.  Goalkeeper Mark Schwarzer was last year’s player of the year; after arriving from Middlesbrough he was instrumental in many of Fulham’s most impressive games, including wins over Manchester United and Arsenal and a draw with Chelsea.  Schwarzer could rely on a steady defense to help out; the star performer was Norwegian Brede Hangeland, purchased last summer.  His performances were good enough to draw interest from Arsenal this summer, and his departure would be a huge blow to Fulham’s hopes.  Fulham’s other defenders, including Aaron Hughes, John Paintsil, and Paul Konchesky, are all solid, but losing Hangeland would leave a huge hole in the center of the defense.  The midfield is workmanlike; ageless (and Manchester United-killer) Danny Murphy captains the side, while Teymourian Adranik anchors the center of the park.  New signing Dikgacoi should provide competition to Adranik despite a lackluster Confederations Cup for South Africa.  Zoltan Gera and Clint Dempsey provide options going forward, and Bjorn Helge Riise, John Arne’s brother, can play either on the wing or centrally.  Fulham have many options up front, but no one who will strike fear into EPL defenses; Andy Johnson was disappointing after his move from Everton, while Erik Nevland and Diomansy Kamara have been inconsistent.  Bobby Zamora did not played badly last term but scored only two goals, and American Eddie Johnson has yet to break into the squad after spending the last two seasons on loan at Cardiff.  If the Cottagers can score consistently they could do better than ninth, but their lack of summer spending relative to some teams that finished below them means that replicating last season’s finish will be very difficult.

10. Sunderland

In: Lorik Cana, Marseille, £5m; Fraizer Campbell, Man Utd, £3.5m; Paulo da Silva, Toluca, free; Darren Bent, Spurs, £10m; Lee Cattermole, Wigan, £6m

Out: Dean Whitehead, Stoke, £3m; Michael Chopra, Cardiff, £4m; Greg Halford, Wolves, undisclosed

In terms of return on investment, it’s difficult to argue that any team had a better transfer season that Sunderland, and they may not be done yet.  Sure, Man City made bigger moves, but whether they got value for their buys remains unknown.  Getting highly-rated midfielder Cana for only five million pounds is, in my view, the biggest bargain of the year.  A player of undoubted quality, I’m amazed for two reasons: first, that a team of Sunderland’s caliber (or lack thereof, in this case) was able to land him, and two, that they got him at such a low price.  Tremendous business for new manager Steve Bruce, who was known for getting tremendous bargains–think Antonio Valencia–at previous club Wigan.  Bruce also did well to get Fraizer Campbell at such a low price–while he saw very little action on loan at Tottenham last year, Hull offered six million pounds for the England Under-21 striker, only for Campbell to reject them.  His purchase, along with that of Darren Bent ensures that Sunderland have a very dangerous and deep strikeforce, with Trinidadian Kenwyne Jones another potent option.  Let’s start from the back, though: former club record signing Craig Gordon has been reduced to Sunderland’s backup goalkeeper; Martin Fulop took over when Gordon got injured last season and has maintained his place since.  Both are capable and Sunderland are in good hands at the back, though Gordon could chafe if he continues in a backup role.  Sunderland’s defense is talented, but perhaps a bit thin: Anton Ferdinand, Rio’s younger brother, keys the middle of their defense, where he is usually partnered by Nyron Nosworthy.  Former United player (Sunderland have a few; remember, Roy Keane was their old manager and Bruce is a former United player) Phil Bardsley capably mans the right side, and fans’ player of the year Danny Collins is a fixture on the left.  George McCartney, Paul McShane, and new signing Paolo da Silva, player of the year in Mexico last year, provide depth; whether McShane will stay after being loaned to Hull last season remains unknown.  Sunderland’s midfield is very strong; anchored by the combatative Cana, the club has attacking flair in Teemu Taino, Carlos Edwards, Keiran Richardson and Steed Malbranque.  Grant Leadbitter and Andy Reid are also good players who can take on a variety of midfield roles.  New signing Lee Cattermole, signed from Bruce’s old club Wigan, is one of the Premiership’s rising stars; he was in high demand this summer and should combine well with Cana to make up a central combination that will have other teams quaking in their boots.  The three-headed monster of Bent, Jones and Campbell should supply Sunderland with quite a few goals this season, while David Healy and Darryl Murphy should be good for the occasional goal in cameo roles.  Overall, Sunderland look very strong in all positions and with Bruce at the helm, they should improve upon last season’s 16th-place finish.

11.  West Ham United

In: Luis Jimenez, Inter Milan, loan; Peter Kurucz, Ujpest FC, undisclosed; Fabio Daprela, Grasshopper Club Zurich, undisclosed; Radoslav Kovac, Spartak Moscow, undisclosed

Out: Freddie Sears, Crystal Palace, loan; Lee Bowyer, Birmingham, free

West Ham also did very good business this summer, and manager Gianfranco Zola has formed West Ham into an attractive, flowing team that still gets results.  That said, the advances of teams such as Sunderland and Tottenham, who finished below them last season, will make replicating last season’s 9th-place finish difficult.  However, if injury-prone players like Keiron Dyer and Dean Ashton can stay healthy, West Ham could exceed expectations and could even make a bid for a place in the Europa League.  One place that West Ham do not have to worry about is goalkeeper.  Robert Green has been called into the England squad recently, a testament to his fine form for the Hammers.  Protecting him in defense will be fellow England international Matt Upson, provided he does not complete a rumored move to Manchester City, and James Collins, Danny Gabbidon, and youngster James Tomkins all provide adequate partners.  American Jonathan Spector provides depth across the back line, though his natural postition is right back, and Herita Ilunga has blossomed into a good left-back since replacing George McCartney when the latter was sold to Sunderland.  West Ham has a very deep and versatile midfield, led by England Under-21 captain Mark Noble.  Scott Parker, Keiron Dyer, Radoslav Kovac and 20-year-old Jack Collison also play in the center of the park, and Zola is spoiled for choice on the wings: Luis Boa Morte, Savio Nserenko, Valon Behrami, Julien Faubert and Junior Stanislas are all capable players; Faubert was even loaned to Real Madrid this year in the strangest move of the January transfer window.  It will be interesting to see how Zola incoroporates Luis Jimenez into his squad; ideally, the Chilean plays between the midfield and the forwards, but he may be forced to play as a traditional forward due to the Hammers’ depth in midfield and lack thereof  up front.  England internationals Carlton Cole and Dean Ashton make up a potentially deadly duo, but Ashton has missed a lot of time with injuries, and backup Zavon Himes missed all of last year through injury.  It is interesting that Zola let young striker Sears go on loan; clearly he has faith in his strikers to play well and stay healthy.  If they do so West Ham could easily exceed expectations, but their lack of depth at forward may prove to be their Achilles heel.

12.  Wigan Athletic

In: Jordi Gomez, Espanyol, £1.7m; Hendry Thomas, Olimpia, free; Jason Scotland, Swansea, £2m; James McCarthy, Hamilton, £1.2m; Scott Sinclair, Chelsea, loan; Antonio Amaya, Rayo Vallecano, free

Out: Antonio Valencia, Manchester United, £16m; Lee Cattermole, Sunderland, £6m

Wigan could be in for a tough season: they sold arguably their two best players and lost their manager this summer, and they are relying upon low-cost replacements and a manager who is in the Premier League for the first time to continue their success.  That said, the Latics still have a strong squad and Roberto Martinez is seen as one of the most promising young managers in the game; while he may need a bit of time to catch his breath, he should be fine in the long run.  He will have a strong backstop in England international Chris Kirkland; though the goalkeeper has only made one appearance for his nation he has consistently played well for his club.  In front of him will be an experienced defense led by captain Mario Melchiot, Paul Scharner, Emmerson Boyce, and Titus Bramble, who has overcome his reputation as an error-prone defender to become a solid presence in the center of defense.  Though Wigan’s midfield has been gutted since the turn of the new year–Wilson Palacios, Valencia, and Cattermole have all departed–talented players remain, most notably Jason Koumas, Charles N’Zogbia, and new signings Gomez and McCarthy.  They also have depth, though the backups are not quite as talented.  Finally their forward line is very intriguing: Jason Scotland scored a goal every other game with Swansea and Martinez will have to hope that he can come close to replicating that return at the Premier League level, while Scott Sinclair, at age 20, should be ready to produce or risk being sold by Chelsea.  Hugo Rodallega will hope to improve upon his three goals in fifteen appearances from last season, and no one really knows what to make of Marlon King.  The temperamental striker was drawing interest from Hull, and considering he was loaned out twice last season it seem unlikely that he has a future at Wigan.  Nevertheless, he is undeniably talented and if Wigan cannot attract any other forwards this summer he may stay.  In a team so full of unknown quantities, including at manager, it is difficult to predict where Wigan will finish, but I think that Martinez and the new imports will adjust quickly.  They will have to if they want to maintain the comfort of a mid-table finish this season.

Tomorrow, along with the start of the Premier League–I hope you’re all excited–I’ll unveil 5th through 8th place.  Get excited for the weekend and the start of the EPL!

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