On a day filled with international friendlies and World Cup qualifiers (my schedule was Russia-Argentina, Scotland-Norway (switching to Brazil-Estonia at half; rough game for Scotland), England-Netherlands and finally US-Mexico, a list long on good games but short on results I was happy with), I thought I’d start my EPL predictions with the bottom four clubs. I will be adding to these predictions four teams at a time, culminating with the top four teams later this week. It’s time to get excited–internationals today, and the EPL starts this weekend; could life get any better?
17. Stoke City
In: Dean Whitehead, Sunderland, £3m
Out: Seyi Olofinjana, Hull, £3m
Stoke caused a lot of problems for teams last season (just ask Arsenal) and should do much the same this year. A hard-nosed team under manager Tony Pulis, Stoke relied upon the goals of Ricardo Fuller, the throw-ins of Rory Delap, and an underrated defense led by former Manchester United youngster Ryan Shawcross to grind out points against teams with far higher payrolls. Though Stoke may not be the prettiest team to watch, their style of play is perfect for the Premier League and Pulis has proven to be a shrewd tactician. His midfield is filled with hard-working players who have pedigrees–Salif Diao is a former Liverpool player, Dean Whitehead, a shrewd summer signing, was Sunderland’s captain in the past, and Michael Tonge was long viewed as one of the most talented players outside of the Premier League while with Sheffield United–if he can live up to his promise, Stoke could finish closer to mid-table. Goalkeeper Thomas Sorenson is an experienced EPL player and his consistent play will be key to Stoke’s hopes. Strikers Dave Kitson and James Beattie need to improve their performances from last year; Kitson, Stoke’s record signing, did not score a single goal. That said, if they can supply goals alongside Fuller, Stoke should be able to stay up again, though their lack of summer signings mean that they are unlikely to replicate last season’s twelfth-place finish.
18. Birmingham City
In: Joe Hart, Man City, loan; Barry Ferguson, Rangers, £1m; Roger Johnson, Cardiff City, £5m; Christian Benitez, Santos Laguna, £8.5m; Giovanny Espinoza, Barcelona SC (Ecuador), undisclosed; Lee Bowyer, West Ham, free
Out: Stephen Kelly, Fulham, free
Birmingham are somewhat of an unknown quantity; they have bolsered their squad with many players, but very few are proven at the Premier League level. While goalkeeper Joe Hart, who was squeezed out of a place at Manchester City by Ireland international Shay Given, was a brilliant piece of business, the jury is out on record signing Christian Benitez, the first Ecuadorian to play in the Premier League. Compatriot Espinoza is mainly on the team to help Benitez adjust; he is unlikely to play on a regular basis. Ferguson and Johnson were both good players with their previous teams, though Ferguson did not fare well in his brief time in the EPL with Blackburn Rovers. Their forward line is filled with question marks–how well will James McFadden play after missing most of last season with an injury? Will Benitez cope with the physicality of the EPL? Can 36-year-old Kevin Phillips play at the Premier League level at such an advanced age? Their midfield should be relatively strong; workmanlike captain Damien Johnson and right winger Sebastian Larsson, formerly of Arsenal, should prove especially important, while Lee Bowyer provides experience and numerous yellow cards. Their defense, however, is suspect; EPL retreads such as Stephen Carr and Franck Quedrue will have to replicate their impressive performances from last season and Roger Johnson will have to show fans why he was voted Cardiff’s player of the year in 2009. While Birmingham have the potential to say up, it may be asking too much; veterans will have to produce at a very high level and all of Birmingham’s summer signings will have to thrive in the Premier League.
19. Hull City
In: Jozy Altidore, Villareal, loan; Seyi Olofinjana, Stoke, £3m; Steven Mouyokolo, Boulogne, £1.8m, Stephen Hunt, Reading, £3.5m; Kamel Ghilas, Celta Vigo, £1.7m
Out: Sam Ricketts, Bolton, undisclosed
Hull barely survived last season despite having a tremendous start that saw them in the upper half of the table for a long stretch. They ended, however, by only winning one of their last 22 games and have fared miserably in the transfer market, as all of their choices to come in at forward (including Michael Owen and Fraizer Campbell) chose to sign elsewhere. Boss Phil Brown is a polarizing figure; his halftime lambasting of Hull on the pitch against Manchester City was seen by many as the reason that Hull finished the season so poorly. He will have to hope that his team can replicate their early-season form if Hull are to stay up. Their defense is relatively strong–goalkeeper Boaz Myhill is a steadying presence in goal, and Michael Turner has been linked with a move to Liverpool; if he stays, he will be integral to Hull’s chances. Their other defenders are solid if uninspring; Kamil Zayatte and Anthony Gardner are the best of the bunch. Their midfield is strong but inconsistent; Geovanni is a tremendous talent but mercurial, record signing Jimmy Bullard was impressive enough to play for England last season but is injury-prone and may not fully recover from multiple knee surgeries, and players such as George Boateng and Kevin Kilbane are past their prime. Stephen Hunt is a good signing, though, and should provide good service from the wing. The main problem, though, is their forwards; Geovanni led the team with eight goals and Altidore, while talented, may take time to adjust to the Premier League. Hull have no one else who can score regularly, however, and their desperation for goals has seen them explore the possibility of signing Marlon King, who has a reputation as a malcontent.
20. Burnley
In: Steven Fletcher, Hibs, £3m; Tyrone Mears, Derby, £500,000; Richard Eckersley, Man Utd, compensation pending; Brian Easton, Hamilton, £350,000; David Edgar, Newcastle, compensation pending; Fernando Guerrero, Independiente de Valle, loan
Out: Alan Mahon, Tranmere, free
Burnley won a lot of fans with their entertaining style of play, which was exemplified in their playoff victory over Sheffield United at Wembley. That said, they have a very tough task ahead of them in the Premier League. Their summer signings have been solid, but goalkeeper is a problem position; much like Ben Foster, starter Brian Jensen is less than assured in clearing the ball. Their defense should be decent but not spectacular; Tyrone Mears, David Edgar, Steven Caldwell, 37-year-old Graham Alexander, and Richard Eckersley are all solid defenders, though the group has little Premier League experience. The midfield is also serviceable but not overly impressive; although Chris Eagles, Wade Elliot, and Guerrero are all good players, Burnley’s lack of depth could haunt them. Their forward line also lacks depth; Stephen Fletcher is a quality player, but whether he and leading scorer Andrew Paterson can replicate their form at a higher level remains to be seen. Manager Owen Coyle has shown that he has the tactical nous to succeed at a high level, but I just see too much of West Brom in Burnley to think that they will survive–both were teams that tried to play attractive soccer with talent that wasn’t quite up to EPL standards. While it would be nice to see a team like Burnley manage to avoid the drop, I just don’t see it happening.
The next post, on positions 13-16, will be up tomorrow–one post a day until Sunday, when last season’s first and second-place finishers, Manchester United and Liverpool, start their Premier League seasons.
I agree, Burnley are doomed for relegation at 20th. I have Stoke City and Hull switched, with Stoke getting relegated in 18th place. I feel they could easily suffer from a sophomore slump, and I have a feeling that Hull will be that little bit more consistent this year to once again get 17th. I wish I thought otherwise because I HATE Phil Brown and like Tony Pulis, but Hull have more talent. The one I think you really missed is 19th. I have Portsmouth because my god is that team being scuttled before our eyes. Utaka has got loads of pace, but makes Darren Bent look like a clinical finisher. Kranjcar is HELLA raw, but he may be their only playmaker left. I have a feeling James will stay, but Campell is far too old. I’d rather have Rio against the Netherlands than him! Distin I think is going to be sold. Hart didn’t produce the results last year ergo Portsmouth are cooked. Besides the Portsmouth issue, so far so good. I’m not going to split overs who finished 17th or 18th although it is obviously critical for the teams concerned.
I disagree with you on Hart; he did alright after Tony Adams (an Arsenal man) did horrendously. As I said on my other post, though, I could easily see Pompey getting relegated; it really depends on what happens during the rest of the transfer window. Good to know you think Kranjcar is HELLA RAW, though, dude.